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Lessons Learned in 2014

5 Themes to Keep in Focus as We Look Forward to 2015 from AllianceBernstein.

See full article here.

Long-Term Perspective

Good Perspective on Not Letting Short Term Performance Alter Your Long-Term Investment Strategy.

"Efficient Frontier "Theory" for the Long Run" by AQR.


1) Five years is not a very long time. You see crazy things over five years. Of course, it often feels like a lifetime to actually live through it.

2) Over the long haul (which I’ll call 45 years here though there is no perfect agreed upon definition) some of the most basic parts of financial theory look pretty darn good.

Bull Markets Don't Die of Old Age

After a big Sell-off day like we experienced this past Friday, there is always the inevitable parade of articles and media quotes suggesting that this is the beginning of “the big correction”.  One can certainly make arguments for both the Bull and Bear case in U.S. Equities currently, but Bull markets don’t simply die because they have lasted for quite some time.  Generally speaking, Bull markets are killed by elevated interest rates and investor over-enthusiasm.  We currently have neither one.


I recently saw two examples of long-term asset return forecasts from very credible firms that I have invested money with in the past.  Forecasts are certainly nothing new, but what struck me was how divergent the two predictions actually were.  What sort of assumptions do you have to use to not just get varying results, but to get returns that move in the opposite direction!  We are not in the game of forecasting and I cannot tell you which of these views will ultimately prove to be correct, but I can tell you that neither one will represent exactly what is going to happen.