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Bread & Circus

Oil Supply at 80 Year High

Crude oil inventories increased yet again last week.   That’s the 13th straight weekly increase, the longest streak since 1983.

According to the Energy Information Administration, “U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 482.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.”

From Bespoke Investment Group:

The Relationship Between Oil and Stocks

Nicolas Colas at Convergex puts out an excellent note every morning.  Toady, he describes the long-term relationship between oil and stcks and how they trade.   He is what he had to say.

Letter From a Venezuelan Jail

From the Wall Street Journal:

"My country, Venezuela, is on the verge of social and economic collapse. This slow-motion disaster, nearly 15 years in the making, was not initiated by falling oil prices or by mounting debts. It was set in motion by the authoritarian government’s hostility toward human rights and the rule of law and the institutions that protect them.

The Biggest Bull Yet - 15% Upside Prediction for US Stocks in 2015

Market Strategists' 2015 S&P 500 Index Price Targets (from Business Insider)

The Marvel of American Resilience

From the Wall Street Journal:

"Fracking would make a good case study. The revolution happened in the U.S. not because of any great advantage in geology—China, Argentina and Algeria each has larger recoverable shale gas reserves. It didn’t happen because America’s big energy companies are uniquely skilled or smart or deep-pocketed: Take a look at ExxonMobil ’s2004 Annual Report and you’ll barely find a mention of “fracturing” or “horizontal” drilling.

This is Not 1998

Despite Falling Oil Prices and Currency Swings, Fundamental Backdrop is Materially Different now than it was in 1998.

From Bloomberg:


1) Falling oil prices

2) Currencie sink

3) Fed Policy


1) Flexible exchange rates

2) Foreign reserves

3) Debt

4) Interest rates

See full article here.

“I am Secretariat. Why would you bet on anyone other than Secretariat?” – The Fall of Bill Gross

Good insight on Bill Gross's downfall from his lofty perch in Newport Beach. 

From Bloomberg:

“Money, big money, personal egos, differences of opinion, slights and disagreements built up over 10 or 15 years -- that’s a pretty explosive combination.”

Goodbye Captain my Captain

Canadians say goodbye to a Gentleman and a Leader - Jean Beliveau

Lessons Learned in 2014

5 Themes to Keep in Focus as We Look Forward to 2015 from AllianceBernstein.

See full article here.

Long-Term Perspective

Good Perspective on Not Letting Short Term Performance Alter Your Long-Term Investment Strategy.

"Efficient Frontier "Theory" for the Long Run" by AQR.


1) Five years is not a very long time. You see crazy things over five years. Of course, it often feels like a lifetime to actually live through it.

2) Over the long haul (which I’ll call 45 years here though there is no perfect agreed upon definition) some of the most basic parts of financial theory look pretty darn good.