Forecasting

I recently saw two examples of long-term asset return forecasts from very credible firms that I have invested money with in the past.  Forecasts are certainly nothing new, but what struck me was how divergent the two predictions actually were.  What sort of assumptions do you have to use to not just get varying results, but to get returns that move in the opposite direction!  We are not in the game of forecasting and I cannot tell you which of these views will ultimately prove to be correct, but I can tell you that neither one will represent exactly what is going to happen.  Proceed with caution.

From Columbia Management:

http://blog.columbiamanagement.com/2015-capital-market-assumptions

From GMO: